#OpenDialogue 29 May. Antarctica: The Forgotten Planetary Commons Hidden from View but … Is this a possible site for a Pre-emptive Planetary Peace Strikes

A Critical Planetary System Hidden from View

In a world grappling with multiple visible crises, one of the most critical planetary systems remains largely out of sight and mind: Antarctica. Yet this vast, frozen continent represents both a looming flashpoint for potential conflict and an extraordinary opportunity for what Dark Matter Labs founder Indy Johar calls “pre-emptive planetary peace strikes.”

Following the Open Dialogue and exploration of the concept of Pre-emptive Planetary Peace Strikes and the significant interest in expanding further on exploring real-world opportunities and interventions for this concept, we invite you to join us for a follow-up conversation exploring Antarctica as a case study for this emerging framework. Alongside Indy, this discussion will feature Andrew Kelly, former CEO of the Antarctic Science Foundation, who brings unique insights on this planetary commons that is simultaneously vital to global stability yet suffering from alarming degradation and conflict risk.

📅 Date: May 29th, 2025
⏰ Time: 3.30 PM GMT / 4.30 PM CET / SAST / 10.30 AM ET / 7.30 AM PST
🔗 Register for the zoom link

The Hidden Crisis of Antarctica

Andrew Kelly’s testimony to Australia’s Joint Standing Committee on the National Capital and External Territories reveals a troubling reality: despite being twice the size of Australia and containing most of the world’s freshwater, Antarctica has been “missed in the Australian mythology” and remains poorly understood by the public. As Kelly noted:

“Antarctica doesn’t shout; it whispers, and the only way we can decode those whispers is through scientific research. Antarctica is the canary in the coalmine.”

Those whispers should be increasingly alarming:

• Antarctic sea ice reached historic lows in both summer and winter since records began
• Multiple emperor penguin colonies suffered catastrophic breeding failures as traditionally stable ice platforms collapsed
• The Antarctic Overturning Circulation has slowed by 30% over 30 years, disrupting a vital carbon sink and threatening marine ecosystems
• The Thwaites Glacier (nicknamed the “doomsday glacier”) is rapidly melting, potentially driving around 4% of global sea-level rise
• The collapse of the Conger Ice Shelf in 2022 happened in what was previously thought to be a stable part of East Antarctica
• The continent’s whispers are being drowned out by growing global competition for access to resources and control.

A fundamental misunderstanding compounds this problem. As Kelly points out “People think funding science in Antarctica is a government thing.” This misconception – and that Antarctica is “taken care of” by some undefined governmental authority—creates a critical blind spot. This collective abdication of responsibility leaves one of our most vital planetary commons vulnerable to exploitation.

A Contested Commons with Rising Tensions

Despite being governed by the Antarctic Treaty System since 1959, Antarctica is increasingly becoming a site of geopolitical competition and resource extraction. Andrew Kelly’s revelations about the governance system are concerning:

“Antarctica is actually governed by the Antarctic Treaty System, which in 1959 froze all claims… They meet once a year. They do not invite journalists… nobody really knows what goes on inside these meetings.”

Meanwhile, powerful interests are accelerating their presence and competing for territory and resources:

• Russia was there last year prospecting for oil and gas deposits
• The Chinese are putting stations in Antarctica as quickly as they can erect them
• Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are the most recently admitted “interested parties” to the Antarctic Treaty System, among approximately 58 nations which are parties to the Treaty.
• Trump cut $60 million from the US Antarctic Program while other nations and a actors are seeking to expand their footprint
• Tourism operators are increasing their presence, adding pressure to fragile ecosystems

Perhaps most concerning is the exploitation of the Southern Ocean’s marine life. The Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica serves as a critical global fish nursery, yet commercial interests are rapidly depleting its resources:

“The krill fishing is just ludicrous. Commercial operations fishing the keystone species, which, if it goes, everything goes. Humans are fishing in a nursery to catch krill to turn it into livestock feed”

This industrial-scale harvesting of krill – tiny shrimp-like creatures that form the foundation of the Antarctic food web – threatens not just local ecosystems but global fisheries. As Kelly explained: Antarctica is “the food basket and nursery of global fishing…for the whole of all of our oceans.” Research from the University of Tasmania suggests that disruptions to the Antarctic marine ecosystem could collapse fish populations thousands of miles away, affecting food security for billions of people

These escalating tensions, combined with the ecological degradation, create exactly the conditions of “degenerative volatility” that make Antarctica a prime candidate for a pre-emptive peace strike. As Indy Johar described in our previous dialogue, these are systems where not only is volatility increasing, but baseline conditions are simultaneously deteriorating.

Why Antarctica Needs a Pre-emptive Peace Strike

The concept of a pre-emptive peace strike, as articulated in our previous dialogue, represents a proactive approach to preventing conflicts by addressing systemic vulnerabilities before they reach tipping points. Antarctica exemplifies precisely what this describes:

• It’s a critical planetary common good (regulating climate, storing freshwater, serving as a carbon sink)
• It’s experiencing degenerative volatility (not just fluctuations but declining baseline conditions)
• It involves multiple competing interests with potential for conflict
• It has cascading implications for global security (sea level rise, fisheries collapse, resource wars)
• It is based on an outdated governance models – the Antarctic Treaty – with a lack of transparency of governance limitations or clarity of accountability.

The Opportunity: From Invisible Crisis to Planetary Peace Strike

What would a pre-emptive peace strike for Antarctica look like? Drawing from both conversations, several pathways emerge:

1. Enhanced Governance: Reforming the Antarctic Treaty System for greater transparency and accountability
2. Regenerative Management: Establishing sustainable limits on extraction, particularly for keystone species
3. Public Engagement: Building broader understanding and connection to Antarctica’s significance
4. Transnational Financing: Creating new funding mechanisms that recognize Antarctica’s value as a global common
5. Legal Recognition: Exploring the emerging movement for legal personhood for Antarctica

Planetary Commons at the Crossroads

As Andrew Kelly powerfully stated: “Australia has been granted a valuable affordance to live next door to Antarctica, a proximity many other nations would vie for. That was luck. How we listen to, converse with, and identify with Antarctica… will ultimately determine our nation’s long-term trajectory. The same might be said for all of humanity. We get to decide whether Antarctica becomes, in Kelly’s words, “a monster or a mentor.”

This is the essence of a pre-emptive planetary peace strike: seeing the signals early, understanding the systemic vulnerabilities, and creating new frameworks for cooperation before cascading failures lead to conflict.

Join the Conversation

We invite you to participate in this vital dialogue on May 29, 2025, at 1530 UK. The conversation will feature Andrew Kelly in discussion with [moderator to be confirmed], exploring:

• Antarctica’s unique vulnerabilities as a planetary commons
• The signals of emerging conflict and ecological tipping points
• Concrete pathways for pre-emptive peace strikes to secure this vital system
• Lessons for other planetary commons facing similar challenges

Register here to join this crucial conversation on May 29th and be part of reimagining our relationship with one of Earth’s most crucial yet neglected commons.

Join Indy and Andrew on May 29th, 2025 at 3.30pm UK. Register for the Zoom link here.

Indy Johar is an architect, co-founder of 00 (project00.cc) and Dark Matter. He has co-founded multiple social ventures from Impact Hub Westminster to Impact Hub Birmingham. He has also co-led research projects such as The Compendium for the Civic Economy, whilst supporting several 00 explorations/experiments including the wikihouse.cc, opendesk.cc. Indy is a non-executive director of WikiHouse Foundation & Bloxhub. Indy was a Good Growth Commissioner for the RSA, RIBA Trustee and Advisor to Mayor of London on Good Growth, The Liverpool City Region Land Commissioner, The State of New Jersey – The Future of Work Task Force – amongst others. Most recently he founded Dark Matter – a field laboratory focused on building the institutional infrastructures for radical civic societies, cities, regions and towns. Dark Matter works with institutions around the world, from UNDP (Global), Climate Kic, McConnell (Canada), to the Scottish Gove to Bloxhub (Copenhagen) He has taught at various institutions from the University of Bath, TU-Berlin; Architectural Association, University College London, Princeton, Harvard, MIT and New School. Watch his keynote at the Ashoka 2022 conference here Watch his keynote on wild home at RMIT here See his most recent signal spotting report here

Andrew Kelly is the CEO of The Antarctic Science Foundation, which connects philanthropists and researchers to enable catalytic scientific research on the Icy Continent. Across two decades, he has witnessed the power of generosity by facilitating transformational gifts to Youth Off The Streets, The Smith Family, The Refugee Advice and Casework Service (RACS), the Society of St Vincent De Paul and Children’s Medical Research Institute. Andrew trained as an economist before commencing a career in banking with Macquarie, Bank of America and Westpac. He has competed at an elite level in road cycling and is an Observer at the Australian Antarctic Science Council. His favourite role is being a Dad.